Clinton a
Drag? Dems Fear Her Negatives
Aug 13, 11:35 AM (ET)
By RON FOURNIER
WASHINGTON (AP) - Looking past the presidential nomination
fight, Democratic leaders quietly fret that Sen. Hillary
Rodham Clinton at the top of their 2008 ticket could hurt
candidates at the bottom.
They say the former first lady may be too polarizing
for much of the country. She could jeopardize the party's
standing with independent voters and give Republicans who
otherwise might stay home on Election Day a reason to
vote, they worry.
In more than 40 interviews, Democratic candidates,
consultants and party chairs from every region pointed to
internal polls that give Clinton strikingly high
unfavorable ratings in places with key congressional and
state races.
"I'm not sure it would be fatal in Indiana, but she
would be a drag" on many candidates, said Democratic state
Rep. Dave Crooks of Washington, Ind.
Unlike Crooks, most Democratic leaders agreed
to talk frankly about Clinton's political
coattails only if they remained anonymous,
fearing reprisals from the New York senator's
campaign. They all expressed admiration for
Clinton, and some said they would publicly
support her fierce fight for the nomination -
despite privately held fears.
The chairman of a Midwest state party
called Clinton a nightmare for congressional
and state legislative candidates.
A Democratic congressman from the West,
locked in a close re-election fight, said
Clinton is the Democratic candidate most
likely to cost him his seat.
A strategist with close ties to leaders in
Congress said Democratic Senate candidates in
competitive races would be strongly urged to
distance themselves from Clinton.
"The argument with Hillary right now in
some of these red states is she's so damn
unpopular," said Andy Arnold, chairman of the
Greenville, S.C., Democratic Party. "I think
Hillary is someone who could drive folks on
the other side out to vote who otherwise
wouldn't."
"Republicans are upset with their
candidates," Arnold added, "but
she will make up for that by
essentially scaring folks to the
polls."
In national surveys, Clinton's
lead over chief rival Sen. Barack
Obama of Illinois has widened. Her
advantage is much narrower where
it counts most - in early voting
states like Iowa and New
Hampshire. In matchups against
potential GOP presidential
candidates, Clinton leads or is
tied.
The Clinton campaign points to
those figures to make a case for
her electability in a constant
stream of e-mails, letters and
phone calls to jittery Democrats
across the country. A key to their
strategy is to give Clinton's
candidacy a sense of inevitability
despite her negative ratings,
which aides insist will go down.
"All the negatives on her are
out," said Clinton's pollster and
strategist Mark Penn. "There is a
phenomena with Hillary, because
she is the front-runner and
because she's been battling
Republicans for so long, her
unfavorability (rating) looks
higher than what they will
eventually be after the nomination
and through the general election."
What the Clinton campaign
doesn't say is that her edge over
potential Republican candidates is
much smaller than it should be,
given the wide lead the Democratic
Party holds over the GOP in
generic polling.
The problem is her political
baggage: A whopping 49 percent of
the public says they have an
unfavorable view of Clinton
compared to 47 percent who say
they hold her in high regard,
according to a Gallup Poll survey
Aug. 3-5.
Her negative ratings are higher
than those of her husband, former
President Clinton, former
President George H.W. Bush and
2004 Democratic nominee John Kerry
at the end of their campaigns.
A candidate's unfavorability
scores almost always climb during
campaigns. If the pattern holds,
Clinton has a historically high
hurdle to overcome.
"For Hillary, who has
been on the scene for
so long and has had
perception of her so
ground in ... there's
no question it will be
really hard for her to
change perceptions,"
said Democratic
pollster David
Eichenbaum, who
represents moderate
Democrats in
GOP-leaning states.
Her baggage is
heaviest in those
states. Private
polling conducted in
Colorado, for example,
shows that Clinton's
negative rating is 16
percentage points
higher than her
favorability score.
Colorado is a state
Democrats hope to win
in the 2008
presidential race. It
also has an open
Senate seat, with the
Republican incumbent
opting not to seek
another term and
Democrats targeting
it.
Obama has much
lower unfavorability
ratings than Clinton,
though Democrats say
he may have his own
problem - that of
race. It's hard to
measure the impact of
being the first party
to put a black at the
top of the ticket,
Democratic leaders
said.
Some Democrats hold
out hope that Clinton
can turn things
around.
"She's got a tough
road to hoe because
people have formed
opinions of her," said
Rep. Tim Mahoney, a
freshman Democrat from
Florida. "But I can
and will tell you that
when I see Hillary get
out there with the
public, she changes
people's minds. She's
not the stereotype
that people know her
to be."
In Indiana, where
three freshman
Democratic congressmen
are fighting to retain
their seats, Crooks
said Clinton would be
a burden in districts
like his full of
"gun-toting,
bible-carrying,
God-loving,
church-attending"
voters.
"She is just so
polarizing," the state
lawmaker said. Clinton
would drag any
candidate down 3 or 4
percentage points, he
said.
"I'm one of these
Democrats who has some
legitimate
reservations, because
the Clintons have in
the past invigorated
the Republican base,"
said Carrie Webster, a
leader in the West
Virginia state House
who served as
executive director of
the state party when
Bill Clinton won the
1992 West Virginia
primary.
"But the fact that
so many prominent
Democratic males are
getting behind her at
this early point makes
me a little more
confident that she
could overcome some of
the more obvious
hurdles," she said.
Nebraska party
chairman Matt Connealy
said he believes
Democratic candidates
will be able to avoid
a Clinton backlash.
"I probably would
have given you a
different answer a
month ago," he said,
"and maybe will give
you a different answer
a month from now."
---
Associated Press
writers Kathy Barks
Hoffman in Michigan,
Marc Levy in
Pennsylvania, Lawrence
Messina in West
Virginia, Steven K.
Paulson in Colorado,
Kelley Shannon in
Texas and Mike A.
Smith in Indiana
contributed to this
report.
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